Elections advertising spend for 2026 will hit a record high. This outpaces presidential years. AdImpact found this out by counting money that gets lit on fire every two years like clockwork.
High-profile midterm races in California and Texas are driving the spending. Earlier in the cycle than usual. Because nothing says "democracy in action" like carpet-bombing swing districts with the same three attack ads seventeen months before anyone votes.
AdImpact is a company that tracks political ad spending. Their entire business model is watching consultants funnel donor cash into thirty-second spots that make everyone hate both candidates equally. They're very good at it. They found a trend. Campaigns are spending more money sooner. Groundbreaking stuff.
California and Texas races are expensive because California and Texas are large. Large states have many people. Many people see many ads. Many ads cost much money. This is the kind of technical analysis that wins you a Pulitzer in financial journalism, assuming the Pulitzer committee is currently in a medically induced coma.
The 2026 midterms will cost more than presidential years. Presidential years used to be the expensive ones. Now midterms cost more. This means one of two things: either the stakes have never been higher, or the grift has never been more efficient. Spoiler alert—it's the second one.
Retail traders reading this are currently Googling "how to invest in political advertising." They will find an ETF with a 1.8% expense ratio that tracks media companies. They will buy it at the top. They will sell it at the bottom. They will never connect their financial illiteracy to the fact that they also believe campaign ads.
AdImpact projects record spending. Consultants project record commissions. Donors project record tax write-offs. Voters project their rage onto whichever candidate's consultant was slightly less incompetent at media buying. The system works perfectly, assuming the goal was never good governance but keeping people like AdImpact's shareholders in business.
Photo by Markus Winkler on Unsplash
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