Three big things this week. Bank earnings. Inflation data. The state of the U.S. economy. You'll watch all three. You'll learn nothing. You'll make the same trades you were already going to make.
The banks will report numbers. Analysts will call them strong or weak depending on whether they beat estimates by a penny. Those estimates were revised six times in the past month. Nobody remembers the original numbers. Nobody cares. Jamie Dimon will say something about the consumer. You'll nod. You already bought JPM calls on Friday.
Inflation data drops mid-week. CPI probably. Maybe PPI. Doesn't matter which one because you don't know the difference. The number will come in at 3.1% when the street expected 3.0%. Markets will tank for eleven minutes. Then someone will tweet that core inflation excluding food, energy, shelter, and Tuesdays actually declined. Rally into close. You'll panic sell at the bottom and buy back in at the top. Tale as old as time.
The state of the U.S. economy is in focus. Beautiful phrase. Means nothing. The economy is always in focus. It's the thing we're all supposed to be focused on. Yet here you are, reading this instead of analyzing loan loss provisions.
Here's what actually happens: The banks report earnings that Wall Street knew three weeks ago through whisper numbers and insider flow. The inflation print comes in exactly where the Cleveland Fed's nowcast said it would. The economy continues doing whatever it was doing before anyone declared it "in focus." Your portfolio ends the week down 1.2% because you traded on the news instead of the chart.
But sure. Watch your three big things. Take notes. Feel informed. The market will do what it was going to do anyway, and your technical levels didn't change just because Wells Fargo beat on net interest income.
Photo by Tyler Prahm on Unsplash
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