Michael Burry looked at SpaceX's valuation and decided it was too high. Then he looked at the cost of shorting it and decided that was too high as well. This is what passes for conviction in 2026.
The man who made billions betting against subprime mortgages now refuses to bet against a rocket company because the put options cost too much money. He'll publicly announce he thinks something is overvalued but won't put his money where his mouth is because the entry fee hurts his feelings. That's like showing up to a poker game, telling everyone their hands are garbage, then folding because the blinds are too expensive.
Burry's complaint is that SpaceX's market cap dwarfs established businesses and fortunes. He's right. It does. The company launches satellites and plans Mars colonies while trading at a valuation that makes Tesla look like a value play. But here's the thing about expensive options: they're expensive because other people also think the trade might work. The market is pricing in the exact risk Burry identified. He discovered that water is wet and decided not to get in the pool.
Every retail trader who bought SpaceX shares in a private market sale is now wealthier than their understanding of orbital mechanics would suggest possible. They clicked buy on a company that lights controlled explosions for a living and it worked out. Burry did the research, ran the numbers, built the thesis, and then got stopped out by the spread.
The big short becomes the no short. The man's out here publishing investment ideas he's too scared to trade. That's not analysis, that's a Yelp review.
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