Kalshi spent the year begging lawmakers to let them run prediction markets. Casinos spent the year begging lawmakers to stop Kalshi from running prediction markets. Sports betting apps spent the year begging lawmakers to let them do whatever Kalshi gets to do. Everyone paid more in 2026 than they did in 2025.
The logic here is flawless. If you want Congress to write rules that benefit you specifically, you mail them money. If you want Congress to write rules that hurt your competitor, you mail them more money. Whoever mails the most money wins. This is called democracy.
Kalshi already won their lawsuit to offer election betting. Now they're lobbying to keep that win. The casinos are lobbying to take that win away. The sports betting apps are lobbying to get a piece of that win. Nobody is lobbying for the bettor.
The bettor does not get representation because the bettor does not have a lobbying budget. The bettor has a Robinhood account with $847 in it and a strong opinion about whether the Federal Reserve will cut rates in Q3. The bettor will lose money on Kalshi, DraftKings, or FanDuel depending on which corporation successfully bribes Congress this quarter.
This is technical analysis at its purest. You study the charts. You draw the lines. You calculate the momentum. Then a casino writes a check to a subcommittee chairman and your entire thesis gets regulated out of existence.
Retail traders keep asking when they can trade prediction markets on their favorite broker. The answer is whenever their broker's lobbying team outspends the casino lobby. So never.
Photo by Maxim Tolchinskiy on Unsplash
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