The United States bombed Iran during a ceasefire. Not before one. Not after one. During.
Trump accused Tehran of violating the ceasefire in the Strait of Hormuz, which apparently gives you permission to violate the ceasefire yourself. It's like claiming your neighbor broke the noise ordinance so you burned his house down. Perfectly logical if you squint hard enough and have access to cruise missiles.
The two countries agreed to a 60-day period of no hostilities so they could hold talks to end their war. Day one of no hostilities featured hostilities. You have to respect the efficiency. Why waste time pretending a ceasefire will work when you can just blow it up immediately and save everyone the suspense.
Retail traders saw this headline and immediately started drawing trendlines on crude oil futures. They convinced themselves they could predict geopolitical escalation using a Fibonacci retracement. One guy in Ohio just went long on defense contractors because he watched a YouTube video about RSI divergence. He does not know what RSI stands for. He will lose money anyway.
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important oil chokepoints in the world. Twenty percent of global petroleum passes through it. But sure, your moving average crossover system will definitely capture the alpha from two nuclear-capable nations trading explosives during peace talks.
Somewhere a day trader is staring at a five-minute chart of WTI trying to find the exact candlestick that corresponds to the missile impact. He will not find it. The market does not care about his pattern recognition. The market barely cares about the missiles.
Ceasefires used to mean something. Now they're just the appetizer before the main course of violence, a brief pause so everyone can reload and check Twitter. The talks will continue, presumably over Zoom with very tense body language and at least one participant sitting in a bunker.
Nothing says commitment to diplomacy like striking your negotiating partner between meetings.
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