The U.S. and Iran signed a peace deal. Energy prices collapsed. Volatility spiked. Retail traders panicked and rotated their portfolios like they were rearranging deck chairs on a sinking yacht.
Tech stocks didn't move.
The headline says stick with tech. The chart said that six months ago. The chart said it a year ago. The chart has been saying it since before anyone remembered we were still doing the Iran thing. Geopolitical crises come and go. The 50-day moving average does not give a f*ck about your fear.
Energy traders spent weeks pricing in World War III. Built entire positions around crude hitting $150. Bought calls like they were stocking a bunker. Then diplomats shook hands in Geneva and those positions evaporated faster than a TikTok day trader's risk management strategy.
Tech just sat there. NASDAQ barely blinked. Someone on CNBC said this was a rotation opportunity. Someone else said it was a flight to safety. Both of them were describing the same chart pattern that's been in place since February. Neither of them checked the chart before they started talking.
You want the trader playbook? Draw a trendline. Does it point up? Stay in. Does it point down? Get out. Did a war start? Irrelevant. Did a war end? Also irrelevant. The line does not read newspapers.
Retail spent the last three weeks glued to headlines about missile strikes and oil tankers. Probably learned the names of Iranian generals. Definitely didn't learn what support and resistance means. Now they're chasing tech stocks that never left in the first place, buying at prices that were cheaper when they were busy pretending to understand Middle Eastern foreign policy.
The playbook didn't change because the news changed. The playbook never changes. The chart doesn't have a playbook. It has a direction. Yours just pointed the wrong way while you were reading about Iran.
Photo by hosein charbaghi on Unsplash
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