CNBC sent emails to fifty companies asking about their prediction market trading policies. Five responded. The other forty-five deleted the email and went back to work like normal people.
Goldman Sachs is one of the handful that answered. They have policies now. Rules. Guidelines for employees who want to bet on whether the Fed cuts rates or whether Trump wins Iowa. Because that's what compliance departments needed in 2026. Another f*cking spreadsheet.
The concern is insider trading. Fair enough. An analyst who knows Goldman's positioning could theoretically clean up on Polymarket. Bet against the firm's public guidance. Print money. Retire to Costa Rica. Except that analyst also has access to actual insider information on actual securities where the payoff is fifty times higher and the enforcement is somehow even more of a joke.
But sure. Let's regulate the play-money casino for statistics nerds.
Prediction markets have existed for years. Suddenly they're a compliance risk because retail discovered them six months ago and started losing rent money on election odds. Now HR has to send a memo. Now legal has to draft a policy. Now forty-five companies have to ignore CNBC's request for comment because acknowledging the question would require admitting their employees are gambling on the internet during work hours.
The five companies that responded probably have the same policy. Don't trade on material nonpublic information. Groundbreaking stuff. Real cutting-edge compliance work. Someone got paid six figures to copy-paste that from the equity trading handbook.
CNBC reached out to fifty companies and got five answers, which is still a better response rate than your cold emails to recruiters.
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