Rep. Bryan Steil wants to ban members of Congress from betting on prediction markets. Not stocks. Not options. Not the Treasury bonds they tank with debt ceiling theatrics. Prediction markets.
Kalshi and Polymarket let users bet on whether Congress will pass a bill or impeach someone or drag the country into a recession. Steil looked at this and thought the real problem was lawmakers might have an edge. He's right. They do. They're the ones writing the f*cking outcomes.
This is like a referee proposing he shouldn't bet on games he's officiating. Brave stuff. Really threading the ethical needle here.
The bill comes as scrutiny increases on prediction markets. Translation: someone in Congress finally opened Polymarket and saw a contract called "Will Congress Avoid a Shutdown This Quarter" trading at 12 cents. Then they checked their calendar. Then they got nervous.
Steil represents Wisconsin's first district. He sits on the House Financial Services Committee. He helps regulate the markets. Now he wants to regulate whether he can bet on the markets while he regulates the markets. The snake ate its own tail and choked on the irony.
Prediction markets have exploded because retail traders realized they could lose money in new and exciting ways. Stocks weren't enough. Crypto wasn't enough. Now they can light cash on fire guessing whether a spending bill passes by Friday. Kalshi even offers contracts on inflation data. You can bet on the CPI print. You can literally wager on the number that determines whether you can afford groceries.
Steil's bill won't pass. It never does. But it'll get him a few headlines and maybe a segment on cable news where he frowns about integrity. Then everyone will go back to trading SPY calls based on whether Jerome Powell blinked twice or three times during his presser.
Congress policing its own conflicts of interest is the most bullish signal for prediction markets I've ever seen.
Photo by Marek Studzinski on Unsplash
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