Kevin Warsh flew to Portugal to tell a room full of central bankers that inflation is too high. Groundbreaking stuff. The man spent taxpayer money on international airfare to deliver a revelation available on every grocery receipt in America.
He declined to hint at the July rate decision. Smart move. Why commit to anything when you can just say words that mean nothing and let the algos fight it out? Warsh joined a panel at the ECB Forum on Central Banking, which sounds like the kind of event where everyone agrees with each other for three days while pretending they're solving problems.
Inflation is too high. No sh*t. Your technical indicators knew this six months ago. The 200-day moving average knew this. The volume profile knew this. Even the retail traders buying calls on leveraged ETFs knew this, though they chose to ignore it because a guy with laser eyes on Twitter told them inflation was transitory.
The Fed chair position apparently requires you to state the obvious at European conferences while refusing to provide actionable information. It's the perfect job. You get to travel, say nothing of value, and watch journalists scramble to turn your non-statements into headlines. Warsh could have sent an email. He could have posted on LinkedIn. Instead he showed up in Sintra to tell everyone that prices going up is bad.
Here's what matters: none of this changes your chart. The 50-period exponential moving average doesn't care about panel discussions in Portugal. Support and resistance levels don't shift because some Fed official confirmed what everyone already knew while eating custard tarts in Lisbon.
Retail traders will still ignore their stop losses and blame Warsh when their accounts blow up in July.
Photo by History in HD on Unsplash
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