The Federal Reserve published its Beige Book. Discovered that people went to bars during the World Cup. Bought beer. Watched soccer. Spent money.
This counts as economic analysis now.
The Fed deployed researchers across twelve districts to document what every bartender in America could have told them for free. Turns out when millions of people watch a month-long tournament, they don't watch it alone in a cave. They go to restaurants. Order wings. Drink overpriced domestics. The establishments collect revenue.
But here's where it gets f*cking hilarious. The Fed notes this boost wasn't translating to broader economic growth. Meaning the World Cup gave bars a temporary bump and then it ended. Like every sporting event in human history. The tournament concluded. People stopped going to bars specifically to watch the World Cup. Because the World Cup was over.
Retail traders read this and immediately started scanning for which ETF captures "World Cup bar momentum." Checking if there's a leveraged play on temporary increases in chicken wing consumption during international soccer. Wondering if they should have shorted the hospitality sector the day after the final whistle.
The Beige Book exists so the Fed can pretend it has its finger on the pulse of regional economic conditions. What it actually does is confirm obvious patterns three months after they happen. People congregated during a global event. Spent money during that event. Then the event ended and they stopped.
This is the quality of data informing monetary policy. Your interest rate is set by people who needed twelve district reports to confirm that a finite sporting event produced finite consumer activity.
The warning signs consumers are flashing, according to the Fed, is that they only spend money on things they want to spend money on, and then they stop.
Photo by Fauzan Saari on Unsplash
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