FIFA wants two billion dollars to broadcast soccer games that happen in four and eight years. Netflix, Disney, and YouTube heard this number and did not laugh. They nodded. They scheduled meetings. Someone at FIFA said the words "English- and Spanish-language U.S. rights package" and three companies worth a combined trillion dollars leaned forward.
The bundle strategy is perfect. You want Spanish rights? Buy English too. You want 2030? Here's 2034 as a bonus. It's the Costco model except instead of toilet paper you get the privilege of streaming matches to Americans who will complain about the time zones and then not watch.
YouTube already has people filming themselves watching other people play video games of soccer. Now they want actual soccer. Netflix cancels shows after one season but sure, commit billions to a tournament eight years out. Disney operates ESPN which already shows sports, meaning this is just ESPN with extra steps and a worse interface.
Two billion dollars. For something that hasn't happened yet. In countries that haven't been chosen yet. The 2034 World Cup could be on Mars and FIFA would still demand the streaming rights get bundled with terrestrial coverage.
Retail traders will see this headline and think it's bullish for streaming stocks. They'll buy calls on Disney because "sports content is king" and "Netflix needs live events." They'll ignore that Netflix tried live content with that Chris Rock special and the app crashed harder than their portfolio during earnings week.
FIFA looked at the streaming wars and said "you know what this needs? Me charging you more than some countries' GDP." And three companies said yes before FIFA finished the sentence.
The beautiful game meets beautiful margins, and somewhere an algorithm is already calculating how many true crime documentaries Netflix has to cancel to afford Cameroon versus New Zealand in the group stage.
Photo by Anthony Gomez on Unsplash
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