SoftBank jumped 10% because Iran and the United States signed a deal. The deal has nothing to do with SoftBank. The deal has nothing to do with technology. The deal has nothing to do with anything SoftBank owns, invests in, or pretends to understand.
Asian tech stocks soared. Every single one of them. Samsung went up. Taiwan Semi went up. Companies that make semiconductors for washing machines went up. The connection between Iranian foreign policy and microchip manufacturing remains unclear to everyone except the guy who bought calls at market open.
SoftBank's business model is lighting investor money on fire and calling it vision. They've lost billions on WeWork. They've lost billions on every food delivery app that ever existed. They've perfected the art of buying high and selling never. But Iran shook hands with America and suddenly Masayoshi Son is a genius again.
The technical setup told you this was coming. SoftBank was coiling at support. The RSI showed bullish divergence. The volume profile screamed accumulation. The Iran deal is a headline that retail traders will cite for the next decade while ignoring that the stock was already reversing on Friday.
Geopolitical news doesn't move markets. Markets move and then journalists find a reason. If SoftBank had dropped 10%, the headline would've read "SoftBank plunges as Iran-U.S. deal raises concerns about tech regulation." Same event. Different price action. Different narrative. The story follows the chart, not the other way around.
Retail bought the news. Institutions sold the rip. By Tuesday the stock will give back half the move and nobody will write about it because a declining stock doesn't pair well with peace in the Middle East.
Your uncle who bought SoftBank at the open thinks he cracked the geopolitical trade. He's already planning his yacht. The yacht's name is Margin Call and it's getting repossessed in three weeks.
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