The United States launched another round of strikes on Iran. President Trump says the fighting could get worse if Iran refuses to cooperate. Analysts warn this might become a forever war. Retail traders heard "forever" and immediately started pricing in perpetual growth.
A forever war sounds bad until you remember retail thinks forever means three weeks. They've already forgotten about the last Middle East escalation. That one happened in March. They were buying defense contractor calls then too. Lost everything by April. Now they're back with fresh capital and even dumber conviction.
Trump says Iran needs to cooperate. Iran says it won't. Both sides have been saying this for forty-five years. The only thing that's changed is retail now has commission-free trading and a TikTok account explaining why Lockheed Martin is undervalued.
Analysts warn about a forever war like that's new information. We've been in forever wars since 2001. The S&P is up 400% since then. Retail learned the wrong lesson. They think war is bullish. They think everything is bullish. They bought Bed Bath & Beyond at $20 because a teenager on Reddit told them shorts were trapped.
The Middle East intensifies every few months. The headlines change. The tickers don't. Defense stocks spike for six days. Then they don't. Retail buys the spike. Sells the crash. Blames market manipulation. Opens a new brokerage account. Does it again.
Trump could escalate further. Iran could retaliate. Oil could spike. Markets could tank. None of this matters because retail will buy the dip anyway. They bought the dip in 2022. Kept buying it for nine months. Now they're convinced they're value investors because they once read a Warren Buffett quote on Instagram.
Forever war means forever opportunity to lose money on geopolitical headlines that don't affect earnings, don't predict price action, and definitely don't justify that $85 call on Raytheon expiring Friday.
Photo by Saifee Art on Unsplash
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