Oil prices dropped back to pre-war levels. Analysts immediately warned they could go back up. This is what passes for insight when you charge institutions six figures for research.
The Strait of Hormuz remains a choke point. Iran controls it. Roughly 20 percent of global oil supply floats through that stretch of water every day. Strategists now warn that Iranian leverage could spike prices again. They get paid whether they're right or wrong. You do not.
Retail traders saw oil fall and assumed the crisis ended. They closed their positions. They bought ETFs tracking other sectors. They felt smart for thirty-six hours. Then someone mentioned supply risk and they remembered that geopolitics exists.
The same people who bought crude at $90 are now watching it near $70 and wondering if they should have held on. They will not learn from this. Next month they will panic-buy natural gas futures because a weather model predicted snow in February.
Shipping costs remain elevated because insurance companies understand that boats exploding is bad for business. Premiums reflect this. Oil companies pass those costs along. Consumers pay more at the pump. Analysts call this a supply chain disruption. It's actually just expensive boats avoiding missiles.
Every strategist quoted in these stories uses the same hedge. Prices could rise. Or they could fall. Demand remains uncertain. Supply faces risks. They are paid to say nothing in twelve different ways. You are reading their nothing for free and making trades based on it.
Iran does not need to close the Strait. They only need to remind everyone they could. That threat alone moves markets. The oil never stops flowing. The fear never stops either. Analysts will write this same article every three months until you stop clicking on it.
Photo by Richard Bell on Unsplash
Leave a Comment