The Kevin Warsh era is upon us. Not the Kevin Warsh policy era or the Kevin Warsh economic philosophy era. Just the era. Like we're marking time by Federal Reserve chairman appointments now. The Mayans used celestial cycles. We use whoever Powell's replacement is.
Financial media has identified three big things to watch in the stock market this week. Not two. Not four. Three. They counted. They deliberated. They arrived at three.
The list itself doesn't matter. It never does. What matters is that someone sat in a conference room and decided that three was the exact correct number of things for you to worry about. Five would overwhelm you. One would insult your intelligence. Three is the Goldilocks number of manufactured anxiety.
Here's what actually happens: retail traders read the three things, ignore their charts, buy based on vibes, and lose money in ways that have nothing to do with any of the three things. Then next week there will be three different big things. Also unrelated to whether you make money.
The Warsh era could mean higher rates. It could mean lower rates. It could mean rates that go sideways while he gives speeches about monetary prudence. None of this will appear on your chart until it already happened. Then the talking heads will explain why it was obvious.
You want to know what to watch this week? Watch the 50-day moving average. Watch support levels. Watch volume. Those three things have been the same three things since before Kevin Warsh was born and they'll be the same three things during the Jerome Powell renaissance in 2034.
But sure, let's pretend this week's three big things are different from last week's three big things, which you've already forgotten.
Photo by Tyler Prahm on Unsplash
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