Micron quadrupled year-to-date. The stock went up 300%. That's what quadrupling means. Several Wall Street firms sit considerably above consensus estimates for Wednesday's earnings, which tells you everything about how consensus estimates work. Everyone agrees on a number, then the smart guys publicly disagree with it, and we call this analysis.
The headline says Wall Street "mostly thinks" the earnings will live up to the hype. Mostly. Not all. Not unanimously. Mostly. Like a jury that's pretty sure but Dave from accounting has some questions. This is the confidence level we're working with after a 300% move.
Here's what happened. Micron went up. Then it kept going up. Then analysts who get paid to have opinions looked at their screens and said yeah, probably more of that. Then they published reports with price targets above where other people's price targets were, because being above consensus is how you get quoted in articles. Then retail traders read those articles and felt validated. Then they checked their accounts and saw they bought Micron Technology Solutions Inc by accident.
The stock quadrupled and now we wait to see if the earnings justify it. That's the order of events. Price first, justification later. It's like eating an entire pizza and then checking if it was organic.
Wednesday the company reports numbers. Those numbers will either be good or they'll be explained as good. Wall Street firms positioned themselves above consensus specifically so they can be right either way. If earnings beat, they were bullish. If earnings disappoint but guide higher, they saw the long-term value. If the whole thing collapses, they'll release a note saying their target was always ex-items adjusted for normalized cloud cycle dynamics.
Your shares are up 300% and you're reading articles about whether Wednesday will confirm it.
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