Mike Khouw named a trading strategy after his wife Holly. The Holly Index measures consumer preference between Rivian and Tesla based on one anecdote about a car purchase. This passes for analysis on financial television.
Holly bought something. Mike extrapolated a market thesis from it. Thousands of retail traders will now pretend this constitutes research. They'll open their brokerage apps. They'll look at RVN calls. They'll remember the ticker is RIVN. They'll buy the wrong one anyway.
The premise here is that Main Street buyers are choosing between luxury electric trucks the way they choose between Coke and Pepsi. Except a Rivian costs seventy grand and most of Main Street can't afford the insurance payment. But sure, let's call this a Main Street battle. Let's pretend Holly speaks for every suburban mom with a Costco membership and a FICO score above 720.
Tesla trades at fifty-seven times earnings. Rivian loses money on every vehicle it builds. The technical setup on both is a mess. The 50-day moving average crossed below the 200-day on Rivian three months ago. Tesla's RSI has been overbought since people still cared about Twitter. None of this matters because Holly bought a car.
Khouw probably structured some kind of spread. He probably hedged it. He probably won't lose money even if he's wrong. The people who follow his trade will do none of those things. They'll buy calls. They'll hold through expiration. They'll post loss porn on Reddit and blame market manipulation.
The only index that matters is the one measuring how many times a financial professional can mention his spouse on air before it becomes a disclosure problem.
Photo by Cyberbackpack.com on Unsplash
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