Iran fires missiles at Israel. The fragile ceasefire wobbles. Retail traders check their defense stock portfolios and wonder if Lockheed Martin is about to moon.
The ceasefire has been in place since early April. That's roughly four months. In retail trader time, that's approximately 847 years. Long enough to forget why they bought those defense ETFs in the first place.
The missiles reportedly launched. Israel reportedly received them. The ceasefire is reportedly fragile. Everything is reportedly happening while retail traders reportedly pretend geopolitical events affect their three shares of Raytheon.
This is the part where you're supposed to panic. Sell your tech. Buy gold. Move into cash. Hide under your desk. Wait for Jim Cramer to tell you what the missiles mean for your Robinhood account.
The fragile ceasefire was always fragile. That's why they called it fragile. Nobody announces a robust ceasefire. Nobody brags about their sturdy peace agreement. Fragile was built into the product description from day one.
Iran launches missiles. Israel exists in the general vicinity of those missiles. The United States brokered a ceasefire in April that both sides pinky-promised to respect. Retail traders bought defense stocks after the ceasefire because they're always six weeks late to every trade.
The headline says the ceasefire is in jeopardy. Not broken. Not violated. Not over. In jeopardy. The same way your portfolio has been in jeopardy since you discovered options trading and convinced yourself you understood Greeks.
You can't trade this. You can't position for this. You can't chart missile trajectories on TradingView and draw a support line at Tel Aviv. The Middle East doesn't care about your stop loss.
Iran and Israel will do what they've always done, which is exactly what they're doing now, while you refresh your defense stock holdings and pretend the missiles were bullish for your February calls.
Photo by Saifee Art on Unsplash
Leave a Comment