Iran launched strikes on U.S. military facilities in Kuwait and Bahrain. Trump threatened annihilation again. The Strait of Hormuz is now a active war zone. Retail traders immediately opened their brokerage apps to buy USO calls without knowing what the fund actually holds.
The headline says "again" which means Trump has threatened to annihilate Iran before and Iran is still here. Threats work best when you follow through. Ask any parent with a screaming child in a grocery store.
Kuwait and Bahrain confirmed attacks on their soil. Two countries most Americans cannot locate on a map just became relevant to the options chain. Some guy in Michigan is now Googling "where is Bahrain" while his market order fills at a 40% spread.
Iran says it targeted military facilities. The U.S. struck targets in and around the Strait of Hormuz first. Both sides are now trading missiles like a divorced couple trades passive-aggressive texts. Except these texts cost $1.4 million per Tomahawk and retail traders think buying defense contractor shares on Monday morning is a original idea.
The technical picture remains unchanged. None of this matters. Draw your lines. Set your stops. The chart doesn't care if Bahrain gets hit with a ballistic missile or a mild case of food poisoning. Price is price.
Somewhere right now a day trader is calculating the correlation between geopolitical risk and his losing position in Tesla weeklies. He will find a connection that doesn't exist. He will act on it. He will lose money in a new and creative way that honors neither the fallen nor the living, only the market maker who sold him that contract at a 70% implied volatility he didn't understand.
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