The United States military struck Iran again and says it's done for now. Central Command confirmed the strikes wrapped up. They also confirmed they're maintaining a naval blockade. Kuwait and Bahrain reported intercepting Iranian projectiles. None of this affects whether Tesla goes up or down tomorrow.
Retail traders logged into their brokerage apps this morning and saw defense stocks moving. They assumed causation. They bought Lockheed Martin at the top because a headline mentioned missiles. The missiles were fired at Kuwait, not ticker symbols. This distinction was lost on them.
A naval blockade means ships cannot pass. Iran cannot export oil through blocked routes. Oil prices should theoretically respond. They did for eleven minutes. Then algos decided the blockade was priced in. The blockade is three days old. Everything is always priced in, especially the things that haven't happened yet.
Central Command issues these updates in the same tone your landlord uses to confirm he received your rent check. Strikes completed. Blockade ongoing. Projectiles intercepted. No elaboration. No drama. Just a list of military actions delivered with the emotional weight of a grocery receipt.
Someone on Twitter posted that this is bullish for natural gas. Someone else said it's bearish for emerging markets. A third person said it confirms his thesis about the dollar. All three people were trading based on headlines they didn't read about a conflict they cannot locate on a map.
The blockade continues. The strikes are finished until the next ones. Your technical analysis of the S&P 500 remains completely unaffected by which country is bombing which other country, but you'll pretend it matters because the alternative is admitting you're just gambling with extra steps.
Photo by Saifee Art on Unsplash
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