OPEC+ voted to pump 800,000 more barrels per day starting in April. The Strait of Hormuz is now working again. These two facts are unrelated to your portfolio performance but you'll spend the weekend connecting them anyway.
Retail traders already have the analysis backwards. They think higher supply means lower prices means cheaper gas means consumer spending goes up means tech stocks moon. They've constructed a six-step logical chain where each step has a 50% chance of being wrong. Do the math on that. Actually don't. You won't.
Russia and Saudi Arabia agreed on production quotas the same way divorced parents agree on Thanksgiving schedules. Everybody smiles for the camera. Everybody cheats later. The only difference is OPEC+ publishes their lies in barrel-per-day format and your ex-wife uses text messages.
The Hormuz exports "recovering" is technical jargon for "the boats are moving again." Analysts will retroactively explain why this was obvious. They'll cite shipping lane data and geopolitical frameworks and supply chain elasticity metrics. None of them called it in advance. All of them will claim they did.
Some guy with 47 Twitter followers just posted a thread about how this validates his thesis on energy sector rotation. He bought USO calls at the top in 2022. He's down 68% all-time. His thread has twelve parts. Part nine includes a screenshot of a Bloomberg terminal he doesn't own.
The beautiful part about OPEC+ announcements is they're made by a cartel that exists specifically to manipulate prices announcing they'll manipulate prices differently now. Traders treat this as actionable intelligence. It's like getting investment advice from a three-card monte dealer who just told you the game is rigged.
Your technical indicators didn't predict this. Your moving averages don't care. The 200-day doesn't give a f*ck about Hormuz.
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