Two reasons for optimism after a whipsaw market sell-off. Read that again. The market got slaughtered on Tuesday and someone found two whole reasons to feel good about it.
The first reason is bullish options flows around stocks that perform better when interest rates stay lower. These stocks do well when rates don't rise. That's the analysis. Stocks go up when the thing that makes them go down doesn't happen. Throw a parade.
The second reason is call-buyers positioning for the biggest move in Oracle since Covid. The biggest move. Not the biggest move up. Just the biggest move. These geniuses are betting Oracle finally does something dramatic and they have no f*cking clue which direction.
Call-buyers prepared for volatility is optimism now. Guy buys lottery tickets and we're supposed to celebrate his financial planning. He's not bullish on Oracle's cloud business or their enterprise software moat. He's bullish on the stock chart having a seizure.
The options flows around rate-sensitive stocks tell you what exactly? That people bought calls on stocks they hope go up? Groundbreaking stuff. Someone call the journal Nature.
Every market rout produces this exact article. Stocks crater five percent and by market close some desperate analyst digs through options data like a raccoon in a dumpster looking for scraps of hope. Found two reasons. Could have found three but that seemed greedy.
Oracle doing anything interesting would be optimistic. Oracle doing the most interesting thing it's done in six years because some retail traders bought weeklies is not a reason for optimism. It's a reason to check if your brokerage app has parental controls.
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