Amazon Prime Day sales jumped 9.3% year-over-year and retail experts have decided this happened because of high inflation. Higher prices made people spend more money. Brilliant.
The same experts noted shoppers bought more discretionary, long-lasting products. So wallets are pinched, but consumers are loading up on durable goods they don't need right away. Pinched wallets that open wide for discretionary purchases. The logic holds like a wet paper bag.
Here's what actually happened. Amazon ran a sale. People bought sh*t. The total came to 9.3% more than last year because everything costs 9.3% more than last year. This required a team of retail experts to explain.
The "discretionary, long-lasting products" angle is my favorite part. Retail analysts looked at the data and concluded Americans are so broke they're panic-buying KitchenAid mixers. The consumer is navigating with a pinched wallet straight into the small appliances section. Financial hardship expressed through a new air fryer.
Somewhere a day trader read this headline and thought he'd cracked the consumer discretionary sector. He's building a position in XRT based on the word "discretionary" appearing twice in one summary. His stop-loss is a theory about durable goods he half-remembered from an Instagram reel.
The real story is simpler. Amazon wanted to move inventory in July. They discounted it. People clicked buy. The percentage went up because numbers go up. But that explanation doesn't require a retail expert, so we invented a narrative about pinched wallets seeking long-lasting value.
None of this matters for your portfolio, but the retail expert quoted in the article just got booked on CNBC for three segments.
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