The U.S. military is on night nine of bombing Iran. Nine consecutive nights. That's longer than most retail traders hold a position before panic-selling at a loss.
The stated goal is destroying Tehran's ability to disrupt shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Twenty percent of the world's oil passes through that waterway. But don't worry, some guy named Kyle with a Robinhood account and three shares of USO just posted a thread explaining why this is actually bullish for his September calls.
American casualties are rising. The strikes are escalating. Futures traders are now pretending they knew where the Strait of Hormuz was this entire time. They did not. Two weeks ago these people thought it was a Mediterranean cruise destination.
The campaign continues because apparently Iran keeps rebuilding things faster than we can blow them up, which is the military equivalent of buying the dip on a stock that's down 60% in a month. Just keep averaging down. What could go wrong.
Somewhere right now a day trader is drawing lines on a crude oil chart, convinced he's cracked the code. He's identified a bullish wedge formation. He's calculated pivot points. He's determined his entry and exit based on Fibonacci retracements. None of this will help him because he doesn't know the difference between Brent and WTI, but he's very confident about his 200-day moving average.
Nine straight nights of airstrikes and the only thing getting destroyed faster than Iranian military infrastructure is the account balance of everyone who thought they could trade volatility during an active shooting war.
Photo by Saifee Art on Unsplash
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