Israel and Lebanon reached a framework agreement for lasting peace and security. The agreement takes effect immediately after Hezbollah agrees to stop shooting at Israel. A real chicken-and-egg situation except the chicken is a militia with rockets and the egg is Secretary of State Marco Rubio's credibility.
The framework hinges entirely on whether a paramilitary organization known for not taking orders from the Lebanese government will suddenly start respecting Lebanese government commitments. Bold strategy. Like announcing you solved homelessness contingent on homeless people agreeing to buy houses.
Rubio used the phrase "lasting peace and security" which is diplomat-speak for "we got both sides to sign something so technically this counts as my job." The document presumably lives in the same filing cabinet as every other Middle East peace framework from the past forty years. That cabinet must be f*cking massive by now.
Retail traders heard "ceasefire" and immediately started Googling which defense contractors to short and which construction companies to long. They will lose money on both positions. The professionals already priced in seventeen different ceasefire scenarios three weeks ago including the one where Hezbollah responds by launching a TikTok channel.
The most impressive part is calling it a framework agreement instead of what it actually is: a press release with extra steps. Frameworks do not require compliance from the one group most likely to keep fighting. That is called a wish list.
Nobody explained how you implement a ceasefire when implementation depends on the guy shooting at you deciding he is done shooting at you. That is not implementation. That is just waiting and hoping with paperwork attached.
Photo by Hobi industri on Unsplash
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