The S&P 500 dropped 1.4% on Tuesday. The Nasdaq fell 2.2%. Micron Technology collapsed 13%. Wednesday's session will almost certainly move in a direction, possibly up, possibly down, possibly sideways if the market decides to f*ck with everyone equally.
Financial journalists spent Tuesday afternoon writing headlines about what might happen Wednesday. They used phrases like "likely to move" and "big stock stories" as if Tuesday's rout contained predictive information about Wednesday's open. It does not. It never has. The correlation between Tuesday's close and Wednesday's trajectory is identical to the correlation between your horoscope and your portfolio performance.
Micron fell 13% because semiconductor stocks got hit. Or because of guidance. Or because institutions were selling. Or because Mercury is in retrograde. Pick your narrative. They all sound equally credible when you're watching your calls expire worthless.
Retail traders will spend Wednesday morning analyzing Tuesday's tape like it's the Zapruder film. They'll draw trendlines on their Robinhood charts. They'll post screenshots of their watchlists with rocket emojis. They'll buy the dip at 9:31 AM and watch it dip another 3% by 9:45. Then they'll hold through lunch because they're "long-term investors" now, a designation that updates automatically when you're down 40%.
The truth about Wednesday's session: it will happen. Stocks will move. Some will go up. Some will go down. The reasons given will be fabricated after the fact by people paid to explain randomness. The S&P could rally 2% on no news. Micron could recover half its losses because a single analyst upgraded it from Sell to Hold. The Nasdaq could fall another 2% because someone sneezed near a server farm.
None of it matters. Tuesday's selloff tells you nothing about Wednesday except that Wednesday exists and will feature trading hours.
But sure, keep reading articles about what's "likely" to move markets, as if likely means anything when you're gambling on semiconductor stocks.
Photo by Nick Chong on Unsplash
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