Affordable Care Act enrollment dropped by three million people. The Trump administration says fraud controls did it. Policy experts say cost did it. Both groups get paid to have opinions about why poor people stopped buying something expensive.
Here's the fraud theory: The administration cracked down on fake enrollments and suddenly three million ghosts vanished from the rolls. Turns out when you verify identities, millions of people who definitely existed last year stop existing this year. Remarkable how fraud always explains exactly the number you need it to explain.
Here's the cost theory: Insurance got more expensive and people who couldn't afford it stopped buying it. Economists call this "price elasticity of demand." Normal people call it "I have to choose between ACA premiums and food."
Policy gurus love disagreeing about this stuff because disagreement justifies their salaries. If they agreed, someone might ask why we pay them. The Trump administration loves the fraud angle because it makes them look tough on waste. Nobody loves the cost angle because it suggests the system might be f*cked.
Three million people walked away from health insurance during a period when not having health insurance could bankrupt you for getting hit by a car. They weighed the risk of financial ruin from medical bills against the certainty of financial ruin from premiums. They chose the risk. That's not fraud. That's math.
The real debate here is whether poor people are criminals or just can't afford things. Washington spent six months on this question. They're still split.
Retail traders saw this headline and immediately searched for healthcare penny stocks to buy on margin, because if three million people left the system, that must mean the stocks go up somehow.
Photo by David Jackson on Unsplash
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