Trump slapped a 50% tariff on Canadian goods because he believes Canada discriminated against American products in their trade deal. The same trade deal he negotiated. The same trade deal he called the best deal ever made by anyone in the history of deals.
Canada's crime was enforcing the agreement Trump signed. This is like punching yourself in the face and then billing your neighbor for the medical expenses.
Retail traders saw this headline and immediately bought shares in companies that manufacture nothing in Canada, import nothing from Canada, and have never heard of Canada. Congratulations on your puts on Tim Hortons, which is owned by a company headquartered in Toronto but trades under a Brazilian entity. You nailed it.
The technical setup here is flawless if you ignore every indicator that matters. The 200-day moving average of presidential temper tantrums suggests we're due for another 30% swing in maple syrup futures. Chart says buy. Chart also says you're going to lose money because charts don't account for a man who changes his mind between breakfast and lunch.
Mexico is watching this unfold and quietly realizing they're next. They've already been threatened seventeen times this year. It's July.
The trilateral trade pact Trump hates is the USMCA, which replaced NAFTA, which Trump also hated, except when he loved it, except when he called it a disaster, except when he took credit for it. The man has more positions on trade than a Kama Sutra written by economists.
Canada will retaliate with targeted tariffs on American goods, Americans will pay higher prices, and some guy in Ohio will blame Biden even though Biden hasn't been president since January. That guy also just bought weekly calls on a lumber ETF because someone on Reddit told him wood is the new oil.
The real trade discrimination was the friends we lost along the way.
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