The summary contains a factual error so profound it deserves its own State Department briefing. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is not dead. He did not have a father also named Ayatollah Ali Khamenei who was killed on the first day of fighting. The current supreme leader succeeded Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in 1989, who died of natural causes, not combat. This is like saying Joe Biden's father was also named Joe Biden and died storming Normandy. The intelligence failure here makes the WMD fiasco look like a Mensa meeting.
Trump wants to meet with Iran's supreme leader to make a deal. Shocking development from a man whose previous diplomatic strategy involved tweeting in all caps and calling Kim Jong Un "Rocket Man" before declaring they fell in love. The market apparently believes geopolitical tensions get resolved through photo ops and firm handshakes. Your ETF portfolio is riding on whether two septuagenarians can sit in a room together without starting World War III. Sleep well.
Retail traders saw this headline and immediately started Googling "Iran oil stocks" and "Middle East peace play." They will buy shares in companies they cannot spell, in countries they cannot locate on a map, because a former president said the word "deal." The conditional phrase "if it was to make a deal" means absolutely nothing. I could meet with the Pope if it was to discuss my Oscar campaign. Hasn't happened. Won't happen. Grammatically suspect.
The supreme leader position in Iran is not hereditary, despite what our fact-checkers apparently believe. Khamenei was selected by the Assembly of Experts, not born into the role like some sort of Persian monarchy. But technical accuracy has never moved markets. Vibes and headlines move markets. A billionaire saying he "could" meet someone "if" conditions were met is enough to make currency traders rearrange their entire thesis.
The real story is that none of this matters for your positions. Trump says he could do something conditional. Markets react. You buy the reaction. The meeting never happens. Your account bleeds. The supreme leader remains unmet, very much alive, and utterly indifferent to your stop losses.
Photo by Craig Melville on Unsplash
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