Trump ended a war with Iran. Then he flew to France. The G7 will presumably discuss this development along with Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine. Retail traders are currently trying to figure out which ETF benefits most from peace in the Middle East and have settled on a leveraged semiconductor fund for reasons nobody can explain.
The Iran deal got done. War's over. Pack it up. Trump's heading to the G7 to tell everyone else what happened. France is hosting, which means Macron gets to stand next to Trump for photo ops while European markets pretend any of this changes their positions. It doesn't. The DAX moved 0.3% on the news. Stunning stuff.
Russia's war in Ukraine continues to rage, according to the summary, which is a hell of a thing to mention in the same breath as an Iran peace deal. The G7 will address both. They'll sit in a room. They'll talk. They'll release a statement. Futures traders will ignore all of it and trade based on whether Powell coughed during his last speech.
Here's what matters: none of this shows up in the charts. Iran war ends, Russell 2000 moves sideways. Russia keeps fighting, energy stocks do whatever they were going to do anyway. The headlines pile up. The narratives shift. The technical levels hold or they don't. A peace deal doesn't override the 200-day moving average, and Ukraine doesn't give a f*ck about your stop loss.
Retail's buying defense contractors and oil majors because the words "war" and "peace" appeared in the same headline. They think geopolitics is a stock screener category. They're wrong. They'll lose money. Then they'll blame Iran.
Trump solved the Middle East before lunch and Europe still can't figure out how to end a land war on its own continent.
Photo by on Unsplash
Leave a Comment