Trump flies to France for the G7 summit. Iran deal negotiations hang in the balance. Ukraine burns in the background. Retail traders check their portfolios and wonder if they should buy Lockheed Martin.
The answer is no. They should not buy anything. They never should. But they will anyway, because Greg from Tampa read on Reddit that defense stocks go up during geopolitical tension, and Greg from Tampa has never met a pattern he couldn't lose money on.
The G7 will address Russia's war against Ukraine. They have been addressing it for years now. Addressing is what world leaders do when solving would require actual commitment. They address. They condemn. They express deep concern. The ruble remains worthless and eastern Europe remains a warzone, but at least everyone got together for a photo op in France.
Iran looms over the whole thing. The war has drawn the world's focus, which means cable news producers have something to fill the 24-hour cycle besides celebrity gossip and true crime. Traders will pretend this matters for their positions. They will draw trendlines on charts while heads of state shake hands. They will convince themselves that Trump's body language in a press conference means their $420 call options on SPY will print.
None of this changes the fact that your technical indicators cannot predict diplomacy. Your Fibonacci retracement does not account for whether France serves good wine at the summit dinner. Your MACD divergence means nothing when nuclear powers are measuring d*cks at a conference table.
The summit will end. A joint statement will be released. It will contain the word "commitment" six times and the word "framework" eleven times. Ukraine will still be at war. Iran will still be Iran. And Greg from Tampa will still be poor, but at least he'll have a really compelling theory about why the next G7 summit is definitely the one that makes him rich.
Photo by on Unsplash
Leave a Comment