Aurora's CEO announced the company will achieve positive free cash flow by 2028. That's six years away. Six years is longer than most marriages last in California.
The plan hinges on deploying a substantial increase in autonomous trucks. Not some trucks. Not a few trucks. A substantial increase in trucks that drive themselves. You know what else was supposed to substantially increase by now? Your portfolio value after you bought Tesla at $380 because a guy on Reddit said Elon was playing 4D chess.
Free cash flow by 2028 translates to "we are currently hemorrhaging money and will continue to do so through two presidential elections and three World Cups." But sure, let's call it a target. I target being a billionaire by 2030. I also target fitting into my high school jeans. Targets are free.
The autonomous trucking sector burns capital faster than you burn through your kid's college fund on 0DTE options. Aurora's founder gets to go on CNBC and paint a picture of robot trucks delivering goods across America while investors paint a picture of what their kitchen will look like after the next earnings call.
2028 means current investors get to hold bags through at least fifteen more quarterly reports of "we're making progress" and "the technology is really coming along." That's fifteen more chances to hear about how close they are. Like when your dad said he was close to coming back from getting cigarettes.
Retail traders will read this headline and think it's a buying opportunity. They'll see autonomous and trucking in the same sentence and their brain will do what it does best, which is confuse a press release with a business model. By 2028 those same traders will be substantially increased into their second bankruptcy.
Photo by Greg Johnson on Unsplash
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