Biotech had a major comeback. Investors now say it remains compelling. These are the same investors who missed the major comeback because they were waiting for confirmation that the major comeback was real.
The strategy here is bulletproof. Wait for an asset to rise 40%. Read three articles about how it rose 40%. Decide the rise is sustainable. Buy at the top. Call yourself early.
Healthcare subsector quietly became attractive this year. Quietly. As if biotech stocks were sneaking around at night, trying not to wake anyone. They were not quiet. Your technical indicators were loud. You were just looking at crypto tweets instead of reading a f*cking chart.
What do investors say about biotech remaining compelling? They say it already happened, so more happening is basically guaranteed. This is the same logic used by people who see a slot machine hit jackpot and immediately sit down to play it. The math checks out if you close your eyes and believe in momentum fairies.
Compelling is doing heavy lifting in that headline. Compelling means you are late but refuse to admit it. Compelling means the move already made you rich if you had been paying attention three months ago. Compelling means financial journalists needed to write about something between Magnificent Seven earnings reports.
The major comeback already occurred. You are now being told to chase it. This is not analysis. This is a participation trophy for people who buy breakouts after they break.
Here is what actually remains compelling: watching retail traders read that biotech is attractive after the run, buy biotech ETFs on Monday morning, then spend six months asking Reddit why their account is down 18% when the headline said it was compelling.
Photo by Markus Winkler on Unsplash
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