Bitcoin fell. Investors are now debating whether they should own bitcoin. This is the same debate they had last time bitcoin fell. And the time before that. And every single time before that going back to whenever these people first heard the word blockchain at a barbecue.
The phrase "crypto being crypto" is doing a lot of work here. It's covering for the fact that nobody knows what this thing is supposed to do. Store value? It dropped. Hedge against inflation? It dropped during inflation. Digital gold? Gold doesn't lose thirty percent because Elon tweeted a frog.
Forced to revisit what role bitcoin should play in a portfolio. Here's a thought: maybe the role is "none." Maybe the asset that requires a monthly existential crisis about whether it deserves to exist shouldn't be taking up space next to your index funds. Maybe if you have to redebate its entire purpose every six months, it's not an investment, it's a hobby for people who enjoy suffering.
The technical analysis is simple. Draw a line on the chart. Convince yourself the line means something. Watch bitcoin ignore the line completely. Blame market manipulation. Repeat until broke.
Retail traders are currently Googling "is bitcoin dead" for the fourteenth time while simultaneously refreshing their Coinbase app to see if they should buy the dip. They will buy the dip. They will then experience another dip. This dip will have a smaller dip inside it. The dips go all the way down.
The beauty of bitcoin is that it's created a perpetual content machine where the same article gets written every three months with a different number in the headline. Bitcoin at $60K: Should you own it? Bitcoin at $30K: Should you own it? Bitcoin at $15K: Should you own it?
The answer was always no, but that wouldn't fill a portfolio allocation worksheet.
Photo by Kanchanara on Unsplash
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