SpaceX is hitting the Nasdaq. Except it isn't. SpaceX is private. Has been private. Will remain private until Elon decides Mars needs a stock exchange.
But Gwynne Shotwell, who runs the company while Musk tweets about anime, floated a Tesla tie-up to make "Elon's life a little easier." Because nothing says operational efficiency like merging a rocket company with a car manufacturer that can't figure out panel gaps.
The entire premise requires SpaceX to go public first. Which it hasn't done. Which makes this theoretical merger about as real as your portfolio's recovery.
Shotwell mentioned this during prep for a "record IPO" that never happened. Someone wrote a headline about a quote regarding an event that doesn't exist discussing a merger that won't happen. Financial journalism has achieved performance art.
Retail traders are already building discounted cash flow models for the combined entity. They're calling it a synergy play. Vertical integration, they say. Tesla builds the cars, SpaceX launches them into the sun. Finally, a use case.
The logic goes like this: Musk runs two companies badly, so combining them will halve the badness. Math checks out if you failed algebra twice and consider Jim Cramer a thought leader.
Tesla shareholders would get diluted by a rocket company that burns cash faster than its engines burn fuel. SpaceX investors would inherit a car company that's one recall away from becoming a tax write-off. Everybody loses except the investment banks collecting fees on a deal that will never close.
Shotwell knows this. She's not stupid. She's managing expectations while her boss argues with teenagers on Twitter. The quote was diplomatic noise. The headline was wishful fiction. The IPO was a fever dream.
You read four hundred words about a merger between a private company and a public one based on a conditional statement about an IPO that didn't happen, and you're still wondering if you should buy calls.
Photo by on Unsplash
Leave a Comment