MGM was exploring an offer for People Inc. The same People Inc. that just withdrew its own $48.30-per-share proposal to buy MGM. Corporate dealmaking has entered its reverse hostage negotiation phase.
Picture this. You walk into a bar. The guy next to you offers to buy you a drink. You say no thanks. Then you offer to buy him a drink. He says no thanks. Then you both stand there pricing each other's drinks until the Journal writes about it.
The technical setup here is flawless. Two companies circling each other like divorced parents at a middle school play. Both want control. Neither wants to pay. The stock chart doesn't care which casino baron wins the staring contest.
Retail traders read this headline and immediately start building merger arbitrage models in Excel. They're calculating synergies. They're estimating breakup fees. They're Googling what People Inc. even does. The stock moved 0.4% on volume so light it might as well have been one guy in Ohio refreshing his Robinhood account.
The door is open to a bid. What a phrase. MGM's CEO didn't say yes. Didn't say no. Just left a door open. Real estate agents use more committal language when they're showing a house to someone pre-approved for a loan they can't afford.
Meanwhile the technicals are printing a textbook pennant formation that will resolve in either direction with equal conviction depending on which billionaire blinks first. The 50-day moving average crossed the 200-day moving average three weeks ago. Then it crossed back. Then it sent a passive-aggressive text asking if they're still friends.
Dealmaking is heating up. Two companies proposing to buy each other is apparently what passes for heat in the M&A market now. By that standard my refrigerator light is a four-alarm fire.
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