Cboe now offers prediction markets. The company that brought you zero-day options apparently looked at degenerate gambling and thought it needed to move faster.
Zero-day options expire in hours. Prediction markets settle when some idiot on Twitter says they do. This is progress.
The VIX owner wants to meet consumer demand in a fast-growing sector. Consumer demand being the technical term for people who can't wait until Friday to lose everything. They need to lose it by Tuesday. Preferably before lunch.
Cboe built an entire business on selling insurance policies that expire before the ink dries. Made billions. Then watched retail traders turn their zero-days into slot machines with Greek letters. Now they're cutting out the middle man entirely. Just put your money on whether Trump tweets before noon. Whether Bitcoin hits 100k. Whether your wife leaves you. All equally predictable. All equally profitable for the house.
The prediction market sector is growing fast because every dopamine-fried day trader already blew through sports betting and needed something that felt like work. Something they could tell themselves required research. You can't research a coin flip. But you can research a prediction market. You can read seven articles about Fed policy. Build a model. Check the order flow. Then lose to a guy who picked based on his horoscope.
Cboe's timing is perfect. Launch prediction markets right as every other gambling platform realizes they're just casinos with Bloomberg terminals. Get in before the regulation. Get out before the lawsuits. Classic.
The real innovation here is speed. Options were too slow. Futures had overnight risk. Prediction markets settle when reality does, which in 2026 means whenever enough people believe the lie. Cboe looked at that system and saw efficiency. The rest of us see a generation of traders who think buying 0DTE calls on whether it rains in Cleveland is diversification.
They'll make a fortune until they don't, and Cboe will collect the spread either way.
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