The United States bombed Iran during a ceasefire. Not before. Not after. During.
Trump accused Tehran of violating the ceasefire in the Strait of Hormuz, which is apparently grounds for violating the ceasefire yourself. Bold strategy. Like claiming your opponent cheated at poker so you get to shoot them. The 60-day period of no hostilities lasted exactly as long as it took for someone to feel like having hostilities again.
Retail traders immediately checked their defense sector holdings, convinced this was the catalyst they'd been waiting for. Lockheed Martin up 2%. Raytheon up 1.8%. Your $400 portfolio breathing a sigh of relief. You're basically an arms dealer now. Congratulations on profiting from geopolitical instability with the kind of position size that couldn't buy a decent dinner.
The talks to end the war will continue, presumably. Nothing says productive negotiation like cruise missiles. Both sides remain committed to the peace process, which involves accusing each other of starting it and then proving who's better at finishing it. The Strait of Hormuz remains a vital shipping lane for global oil transport and also a great place to test whether ceasefires are more like guidelines.
Day traders are now experts on Iranian military capabilities and the geopolitical implications of sanctions. They learned everything from a three-minute CNBC segment and a Stocktwits thread. Their technical analysis of crude oil futures incorporates precisely zero understanding of supply chains, refinery capacity, or insurance premiums on tanker routes. But the RSI is oversold, so they're going long.
The war that was supposed to pause for 60 days will now pause for however many days it takes until someone else gets accused of something. Peace talks scheduled to resume as soon as both sides finish reloading.
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