Chairman Warsh abstained from giving a rate forecast. The other members did not abstain. They signaled a hike. This is the equivalent of showing up to a group project and writing "present" on the sign-in sheet while everyone else builds the f*cking presentation.
The median projection called for the federal funds rate to end 2026 at 3.8%. A quarter point above the current target range. Warsh looked at that number and said nothing. He sat there. He breathed. He collected a paycheck for having no opinion on the one thing his job requires him to have an opinion about.
Several members signaled a hike in 2026. Warsh signaled that he might need more time to think about signaling. The man turned abstention into performance art. He's the guy at the restaurant who asks everyone else to order first, then says he'll just have a water and maybe pick at the fries.
Retail traders are now parsing the difference between a 3.8% projection and a 4.0% projection like it's the Zapruder film. They're drawing trendlines on their phones. They're calculating what this means for their seventeen-dollar position in a leveraged ETF that resets daily. They're convinced Warsh's silence is a signal. It is not a signal. It's a man choosing not to speak.
The Fed will meet again. They will issue another statement. Warsh will abstain again or he won't. The rate will end 2026 at some number that will be revealed in 2026. Until then, every dipshit with a Robinhood account will trade based on what they think a quarter-point move eighteen months from now means for a stock they'll panic-sell in three weeks.
Warsh abstained because even he knows this is all just expensive theater with catering.
Photo by Palak Pitroda on Unsplash
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