Prediction markets say Coinbase will report declining trading volume for the third consecutive quarter. Speculators who correctly predicted seventeen Trump indictments and zero convictions now turn their prophetic powers toward a crypto exchange nobody uses anymore.
The company's second quarter earnings will apparently confirm what every retail trader already knows but refuses to accept. People stopped trading. They stopped three quarters ago. They're still stopped.
Prediction markets exist so finance guys can gamble on whether other finance guys will gamble. It's gambling about gambling. The philosophical implications would impress a stoned freshman if anyone cared enough to explain them.
Coinbase built an entire business model on the assumption that millions of people would wake up every morning desperate to swap their dollars for dog-themed tokens. Worked great when everyone was doing it. Works less great when they stop. The technical term for this phenomenon is "a business."
Trading volume falls when prices fall because retail traders only buy things that are going up. They call this strategy "investing." Professional traders call it "being the exit liquidity." Coinbase calls it "our customer base."
The prediction markets show 67% probability of a miss. The other 33% represents people who accidentally bet on the wrong outcome and haven't noticed yet. Or true believers who think this is finally the quarter everyone remembers they hate banks and runs back to unregulated exchanges with customer service tickets that never close.
Three straight quarters of declining volume. That's what Wall Street calls a trend. That's what Coinbase calls a temporary headwind. That's what your brother-in-law who bought at $68,000 calls fake news posted by people who don't understand the technology.
The earnings report drops soon. The stock will move. Retail traders will have opinions about what it means. None of those opinions will involve the phrase "declining trading volume for three straight quarters" even though that's the only thing it means.
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