Gas prices dropped below $4 per gallon. Drivers across America popped champagne. They're only getting f*cked 30% harder than they were before the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on February 28.
The headline writers at financial news outlets saw "prices fall" and ran with it. They buried the part where you're still paying a third more to get to your job that doesn't pay enough. That's not a fall. That's a minor correction to a massive spike that already emptied your wallet.
Oil supply fears eased after an Iran deal. The market decided maybe World War III wasn't happening this quarter. Traders who panic-bought crude futures at the top are now discovering that geopolitical risk premiums evaporate faster than their account balances. They paid $95 per barrel because some guy on Twitter said Tehran was about to close the Strait of Hormuz. Now they're holding bags while the smart money already exited.
Retail traders saw the spike and thought they'd finally cracked the code. Buy energy stocks when missiles fly. Sell when diplomats show up. Revolutionary stuff. They're currently down 18% on their USO calls and blaming Jerome Powell.
The Iran deal did its job. It reminded everyone that geopolitical chaos is priced in until it isn't, then it's priced out, then it's priced back in when the next thing explodes. The cycle repeats. The only constant is that you'll pay whatever number appears on the pump and tell yourself it's better than last week.
Gas fell below $4 per gallon. The technical analysis on this is simple: you're still broke, just slightly less broke than when you were paying $4.20. Print that on a bumper sticker and slap it on the Civic you can barely afford to fill.
Photo by Adhitya Sibikumar on Unsplash
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