Eighty percent of economists surveyed by CNBC want Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh to share more about his economic views at Jackson Hole. The other twenty percent presumably already quit their jobs to become yoga instructors.
Picture this. You're an economist. You spent seven years getting a PhD. You wrote a dissertation on monetary transmission mechanisms that three people read. Now you're filling out a CNBC survey begging a guy to talk more at a conference. This is what your mother brags about at book club.
The survey asks if Warsh should provide more insight into his economic views. Not better insight. Not correct insight. Just more of it. Like asking if Taco Bell should offer larger portions. Sure, technically you could have more, but let's not pretend quantity solves the underlying problem.
Jackson Hole hosts central bankers every year so they can discuss the economy while standing near mountains. The mountains do not make their forecasts more accurate. This has been tested.
Economists want Warsh to share his views because they believe hearing him speak will help them understand what the Fed might do next. This is the same logic your neighbor uses when he asks his dog who's going to win the Super Bowl. The dog also has a fifty percent success rate.
These economists will attend Jackson Hole. They'll take notes while Warsh speaks. They'll nod thoughtfully. Then they'll return to their firms and adjust their models by 0.2 percent because Jupiter entered Sagittarius or whatever the f*ck they do all day.
The survey reveals what economists truly are: people who get paid to ask other people what they think so they can pretend they predicted it six months later when it doesn't happen.
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