The FDA changed its mind about where the cyclosporiasis outbreak started. Then it doubled down on iceberg lettuce anyway. This is the investigative equivalent of a detective saying "I was wrong about the butler, but he still did it."
Cyclosporiasis is a parasitic infection that gives you diarrhea for weeks. The FDA launched a probe. Found some leads. Reversed those leads. Then circled back to the original suspect like a cop who ran out of budget. Companies are confused. Consumers are confused. The lettuce remains accused.
Here's what happened: the agency made a "big reversal" in its investigation but still fingers iceberg lettuce as the culprit. That's not a reversal. That's a lane change on the same highway. A reversal would be blaming romaine, or chicken, or the water supply in Flint. This is just the FDA admitting it took a wrong turn while driving to the same destination.
Retail traders are somewhere right now trying to short iceberg lettuce futures based on this headline. They don't know lettuce doesn't have futures. They don't care. They saw "FDA" and "outbreak" and figured they could scalp 2% before lunch. They will lose money on an asset that does not exist in a market that does not trade it.
The investigation is causing confusion, which is a polite way of saying nobody knows what the f*ck is happening. The FDA reversed its position but kept its conclusion. Companies are navigating new updates that aren't actually new. Consumers are buying lettuce or not buying lettuce based on vibes and half-remembered news alerts.
Somewhere a produce executive is on a conference call explaining how a reversal that changes nothing still requires a revised compliance strategy. His PowerPoint has 47 slides. None of them mention the parasite.
The FDA investigated itself and found itself blameless but also correct.
Photo by Gabriel Mihalcea on Unsplash
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