Trump called Kevin Warsh on the phone. Multiple times, apparently. The Fed chairman answered. This constitutes a scandal in 2026 because two people who work in the same government spoke to each other.
The concern is independence. Warsh now has to prove he won't let Trump influence his decisions on inflation and interest rates. He has to prove a negative. He has to demonstrate that conversations he had in private did not affect thoughts he has in private about numbers that don't matter for another six months. Good luck with that.
Here's what's f*cked. If Warsh raises rates, critics will say he's doing Trump's bidding for some convoluted political reason they'll invent on the spot. If he cuts rates, different critics will say he's doing Trump's bidding for the opposite convoluted political reason. If he holds rates steady, both groups of critics will claim vindication and hire a skywriter.
The market doesn't care. It never cared. Your portfolio of tech ETFs and fractional shares of companies you can't spell won't move because Trump and Warsh had a chat. But you'll read seventeen articles about it anyway. You'll form an opinion. You'll share that opinion with your brother-in-law who day-trades from his Peloton.
Warsh could release the transcripts. He could livestream every future call on Twitch. Wouldn't matter. Someone would analyze his tone. Someone would count the pauses. A think tank would publish a white paper about the economic implications of Trump using speaker phone.
The risk isn't economic. The risk is that you're paying attention to this instead of literally anything else.
Photo by Solomon Yu on Unsplash
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