The Federal Reserve released minutes from its July meeting. Officials said they might raise rates if inflation doesn't cool. This counts as news because we've reached a point where central bankers stating they'll do their actual job qualifies as market-moving information.
Imagine your plumber sending you a formal memo. "Minutes from our Tuesday consultation reveal I may fix your pipes if water continues leaking." You'd ask why he showed up in the first place. But slap "Federal Reserve" on it and retail traders scramble to decode what "might do something later if conditions require it" means for their $847 Robinhood account.
The meeting happened July 28-29. They released the minutes Wednesday. That's roughly three weeks of delay. Three weeks in which algos already priced in every possible interpretation. Three weeks in which institutional money already positioned itself. Three weeks in which you, the noble retail trader, waited patiently for the Fed to tell you what happened last month so you could make informed decisions about tomorrow.
The phrasing deserves appreciation. "Saw need for rate hike if inflation doesn't cool." Not "will hike." Not "plans to hike." Saw need for. The passive voice of a teenager explaining why he didn't do his homework. They saw the need. They observed it from a distance. They took notes. Very serious people nodded in agreement that yes, should things not improve, action of some kind might become necessary at an undetermined point in the future.
Technical analysts don't care. The chart doesn't read Fed minutes. The chart doesn't wait for Jackson Hole speeches or dot plots or carefully worded maybes. The chart moves. You either see the move or you don't. But sure, keep refreshing for the next memo from people who saw a need three weeks ago and might act on it eventually if they feel like it.
Your stop loss doesn't care about their meeting minutes either.
Photo by Markus Winkler on Unsplash
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