Trump says Iran's economy is collapsing. A former adviser to Iran's central bank says it's just deteriorating. This is what passes for pushback in 2024.
The guy spent his career advising a central bank that prints rials like they're coupons for a going-out-of-business sale, and now he's out here splitting hairs about whether the economy is collapsing or merely deteriorating. That's like arguing your house isn't on fire, it's just experiencing aggressive thermal expansion.
Mounting sanctions have turned Iran's currency into Monopoly money that lost a fight with a shredder. But sure, let's debate semantics. The former adviser told CNBC the economy is under weight but not unraveling. He probably uses the same logic when his car breaks down. The engine isn't dead, it's just experiencing prolonged mechanical reluctance.
Retail traders saw this headline and immediately started Googling how to short the rial. They can't. They never could. They're now stuck holding Iranian oil futures they bought from a guy named Derek on Reddit who said he had connections.
Trump calls it collapsing. The adviser calls it deteriorating. The actual difference between these two words when applied to an economy: none. Zero. It's the financial equivalent of asking whether you're drowning or just swallowing a lot of water really fast.
The adviser's entire argument boils down to "yes, but actually, if you consider the nuance." There is no nuance. The sanctions are real. The economy sucks. Everyone agrees it sucks. They're just arguing about which verb best describes the sucking.
Somewhere in Tehran, a guy who used to tell people how to manage interest rates is now on cable news explaining that his country's economy isn't collapsing, it's just failing in a very controlled and dignified manner.
Photo by Akbar Nemati on Unsplash
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