Gambling Still Takes Too Long, Apparently

EDGE Markets identified the biggest problem with prediction markets. The problem is not that they attract people who think they can forecast the future despite overwhelming evidence that nobody can forecast the future. The problem is not that they turn political discourse into a casino where lonely men in Brooklyn apartments bet their rent money on congressional district polls they don't understand. The problem is payment friction.

Payment friction.

You want to gamble on whether inflation will hit 3.2% or 3.3% next quarter. The issue preventing you from doing this is that the transaction takes too long. Not that the bet is insane. Not that you're wagering real money on economic data you can't interpret. The checkout process is slightly clunky.

EDGE Markets announced two new products to CNBC exclusively. They did not announce these products to the people who would actually use them. They announced them to financial journalists who will type up a press release disguised as news. This is smart. The overlap between "people who read CNBC" and "people who lose money on prediction markets" is nearly total.

The company wants to reduce friction. They want the process of throwing your money away to be seamless. Frictionless gambling. One-click financial suicide. Amazon for making terrible bets.

Prediction markets already exist in a legal gray zone that makes offshore crypto exchanges look legitimate. The solution is not better regulation or investor protection. The solution is faster payments. Get that money out of your account before you have time to reconsider. Impulse control is friction. Rational thought is friction. EDGE Markets will remove these obstacles.

They shared this news exclusively with CNBC because exclusivity makes garbage sound important. "We're solving payment issues" becomes a story worth writing when you add the word "exclusively." Nobody asked what problems the payments were causing or whether faster transactions would help anyone except the house.

The real friction in prediction markets is the two seconds it takes to ask yourself what you're doing with your life.

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