Stocks rose on news that the United States and Iran might sign a piece of paper in Geneva. The market celebrated a preliminary agreement the same way a dog celebrates when you fake-throw a tennis ball. Pure instinct, zero comprehension.
The details remain sketchy. Something about the Strait of Hormuz. Something about Israel. Something about what happens after the signing, assuming there is a signing, which there might not be. Your brokerage account doesn't care about any of this, but you bought calls anyway because CNBC used the word "deal" and your brain released dopamine.
Here's what we know for certain: two countries that have hated each other since 1979 might hate each other slightly less on paper. The Strait of Hormuz, through which 21 percent of global petroleum passes, may or may not remain a geopolitical flashpoint. Israel may or may not have opinions about this. Geneva may or may not host a signing ceremony where men in suits shake hands and lie to cameras.
None of this tells you whether to buy or sell. The chart doesn't have a line item for "preliminary diplomatic progress with unresolved questions about regional stability." Your moving averages don't adjust for Hormuz. The Bollinger Bands don't widen when Israel gets nervous.
But retail plowed into energy stocks at market open because headlines make people feel smart. They read "U.S.-Iran deal" and think they've unlocked alpha. They haven't unlocked shit. They've unlocked a 50-50 coin flip dressed up as geopolitical insight, and they're about to learn that "preliminary" means "we agreed to keep talking, maybe."
The unresolved questions will stay unresolved until they're resolved, at which point new unresolved questions will emerge, and the cycle continues until you're broke or dead. Probably both. The Strait of Hormuz was a chokepoint last month and it'll be a chokepoint next month, agreement or not, because geography doesn't sign treaties.
Your technical levels didn't move because diplomats shook hands in Switzerland.
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