J.D. Vance announced the United States expects the Strait of Hormuz to remain toll free long term. Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz. The United States does not.
This is like your neighbor declaring your driveway a public easement. Bold move. Vance skipped the part where he asks permission because asking implies you might hear no.
Iran issued a conflicting statement. Conflicting means they said something different. Different means they told Vance to go f*ck himself but used more words.
The Strait handles about 21 million barrels of oil per day. Retail traders saw this headline and immediately bought oil futures because headlines with the word Iran make them feel like geopolitical experts. They are not geopolitical experts. They are people who learned the word strait today.
Vance wants toll free access. Iran wants sovereignty. These positions are difficult to reconcile. Difficult means impossible but politicians hate that word.
The technical setup here is fascinating. Resistance at we have no legal authority. Support at we have aircraft carriers. The 50-day moving average is completely irrelevant because this is a military negotiation happening in headlines, not a chart pattern you can trade with your Robinhood account.
Conflicting statements mean nothing will happen. Both sides will continue saying different things until everyone gets bored or something explodes. Probably the former. Definitely priced in.
Retail traders will lose money on this either way because they always do. They will buy the breakout. The breakout will fail. They will blame manipulation instead of recognizing they just tried to day trade a diplomatic dispute between a senator and a theocracy using technical analysis they learned from a YouTube video.
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