Stock futures are flat. Treasury yields are higher. The Fed will release minutes from a meeting where they already told us what they're going to do.
This is the news. This is what moved markets. Or didn't move them. Because they're flat.
Investors are apparently grappling with higher yields. Grappling. Like yields snuck into their bedroom at 3am wearing a ski mask. Like they're locked in hand-to-hand combat with the 10-year Treasury. Some poor bastard at Morgan Stanley is in a chokehold right now because the bond market exists.
They're also awaiting Fed minutes. Awaiting them the way you'd await test results for a disease you definitely have. The minutes will say the Fed talked about inflation and employment and maybe someone brought donuts. None of this will matter by the time you read it because the meeting already happened and Powell already did his press conference and the dot plot already crushed your tech stocks.
Last week featured a surprisingly weak jobs report. Surprisingly. To whom? Who was surprised? The same people who are surprised every month when government statistics don't match their vibes?
The weak report helped ease concerns about another rate hike. Concerns have been eased. Everyone can relax now. Except the people who lost their jobs, but they're not investors so they don't count as concerns.
Treasury yields surged all week and then stocks went nowhere and now futures are flat and we're supposed to believe these events are connected in a way that matters. We're supposed to grapple with this information. Wrestle it to the ground. Pin it.
The minutes come out and someone will read them and write that the Fed remains data-dependent, which is another way of saying they'll do whatever they want and blame the spreadsheets.
Photo by Maxim Hopman on Unsplash
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